Albert Mohler: Why the Baby Bust?
Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Azure is a serious journal of ideas that states its mission as providing "ideas for the Jewish nation." In the Summer 2007 edition [Jewish year 5767], assistant editor Noah Pollak deals with the reality of the European baby bust.

Pollak deals first with the demographic reality. As he explains, the average number of children a woman will bear (known as the total fertility rate, or TFR) must be stable at 2.1 just to maintain the size of a nation's population. The baby bust is evident in the fact that the TFR is just 1.89 in France. In Spain the TFR is just 1.1 -- a birth rate the editors describe as in a "free fall." Taken together, Europe's total TFR is just 1.38.

What does this mean? It means that European nations will soon face the reality of fast-falling population levels -- levels that will threaten social stability, economic security, and a host of other social goods. Economic security depends upon a stable or growing population. But economic security is not the only issue at stake -- not by a long shot. Many observers believe that growing Muslim birth rates and immigration rates, coupled with a decline in the Christian population, will mean an Islamic future for Europe. the rest