Thursday, September 06, 2007

Where Have All the Children Gone?
Comment by Michael Akerib
Special to Russia Profile

September 6, 2007

Can Russia Reverse its Demographic Crisis?

In 2000, newly elected President Vladimir Putin said that the most important issue facing Russia was its demographic decline, which currently numbers around 750,000 people per year.

Given the present fertility rate, Russia’s population will have shrunk by one-third by 2050, bringing it back to the low level of 1950 – 103 million, in a country still reeling from the massive population losses due to the Second World War. There are 1 million fewer children of school age in Russia today than in 1999. In the future, Russia is likely to have a smaller population than many of its neighbors, such as Iran and Turkey. To even maintain current population levels, Russian women should average 2.5 children, as opposed to today’s rate of 1.2. This is a most unlikely development.
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