Fertility Decline May Unhinge Asian Security, Expert Panel Says

Apr 05, 2012
By C-FAM Staff

The global fertility freefall is about to cause geopolitical upheaval in Asia, a panel of experts said this week. The experts, all contributors to the new book Population Decline and the Remaking of Great Power Politics, spoke at the world’s largest gathering of international relations specialists meeting in San Diego, California.

“For years scholars have said that if fewer people were born, the world would be a safer place. It turns out the opposite is true,” Dr. Susan Yoshihara told conferees at the 53^rd annual convention of the International Studies Association, which drew more than 5000 scholars from around the world. Yoshihara is director of the International Organizations Research Group at C-FAM and coeditor of the new book with C-FAM Senior Fellow Douglas Sylva.

India’s leaders used to see a burgeoning population as a liability. Now they view it as a boon, Lisa Curtis said. India will add eleven million workers every year for the next several years. To translate this into economic wealth, India needs to overcome high social hurdles, the Heritage Foundation expert noted, such as its 25 percent illiteracy rate, labor inflexibility, and high rates of sex selective abortion and infanticide of baby girls.

China’s sex ratios are even more skewed, compounding problems with a workforce that will soon start to contract. This raises doubts about China’s rise, Gordon Chang said, noting that “Beijing sees India through the lens of demography.” Chinese leaders are concerned about the imminent demographic eclipse by India which might fuel political tensions with its neighbor. the rest